How many people have done agile training in Australia?

I was wondering this in the context of another problem. And this is what I came up with.

I went to Scrum Alliance to see how many certified scrum people there are in Australia. Their search gave me a hundred pages of ten people per page. That’s 10,000 certified scrummers. (CSM, CPO, CSP, etc)

I checked to see if I was there, having done my CSM in about 2010. Nope, so it is only people who maintain currency.

The Scrum.org numbers. Not available, but let’s imagine a pareto rule applies and they have 2000 current registered certifications.

I imagine that investing in the certification comes with the training and 80+% of people let it lapse within 1-2 years. This Scrum thing has been a big deal for about ten yours now in Australia, so potentially the market is reasonably saturated and growth is maybe 10% year on year.

So maybe there are about 12,000 people currently registered, and maybe 40,000 people have been through some sort of certified scrum training.

Let’s imagine another class or corporate agile training that touches a few, but essentially washes over the heads of many. Let’s say another 100,000 because enterprise IT is big.

That hints that there are about 150,000 people who have been in a classroom doing some kind of agile training.

Does that feel right?