11 October 2016
I was wondering this in the context of another problem. And this is what I came up with.
I went to Scrum Alliance to see how many certified scrum people there are in Australia. Their search gave me a hundred pages of ten people per page. That’s 10,000 certified scrummers. (CSM, CPO, CSP, etc)
I checked to see if I was there, having done my CSM in about 2010. Nope, so it is only people who maintain currency.
The Scrum.org numbers. Not available, but let’s imagine a pareto rule applies and they have 2000 current registered certifications.
I imagine that investing in the certification comes with the training and 80+% of people let it lapse within 1-2 years. This Scrum thing has been a big deal for about ten yours now in Australia, so potentially the market is reasonably saturated and growth is maybe 10% year on year.
So maybe there are about 12,000 people currently registered, and maybe 40,000 people have been through some sort of certified scrum training.
Let’s imagine another class or corporate agile training that touches a few, but essentially washes over the heads of many. Let’s say another 100,000 because enterprise IT is big.
That hints that there are about 150,000 people who have been in a classroom doing some kind of agile training.
Does that feel right?
4 October 2016
I saw a tweet about a model called Burndown which defined itself as a solution to the shortcomings of agile development. A friend lamented that they’re disassociating from the Agile movement because of the ‘crappy agile’ idea.
I had planned on writing up a similar post internally where I work but think I’ll also publish it publically. My motivation isn’t to shame agile, but to show how it can evolve and provide another example off the beaten track of the normal consulting frameworks.
Not that consultant frameworks are bad by the way. I’m currently browsing the SAFE book with the intent of cherry picking out some good ideas and presenting them as options or tools for teams to draw on.
But this discussion of new frameworks like Burndown also raises another interesting question for me; How do we assess the usefulness and validity of frameworks and models?
One way, which I might try with some components from SAFE is to present them as small and low risk options to experiment with, another more common path is to execute on an “Agile Transformation.”
There are strengths and weaknesses to both of these approaches, but there is also still a need to objective evaluation of their usefulness, both before and after trying the tools they describe.
So a simple way to evaluate these models is a SWOT analysis.
But is a SWOT analysis the right tool for the job? How do you know you’ve picked the right model?